TradingView Indicator

Predict Polymarket
5-Minute
Up/Down Markets

Regime-adaptive scoring engine with 6 weighted indicators, auto-switching between momentum and mean-reversion. Real-time probability, confidence levels, and built-in accuracy tracking.

86.3% Tracked Accuracy
6 Weighted Indicators
Get Access View on TradingView See How It Works

Past performance does not guarantee future results. Not financial advice.

TradingView chart showing PolyPredictor with a BUY DOWN signal, 26.8% UP probability, 61.9% DOWN probability, 100% confidence, and 82.9% total tracked accuracy
Live chart: 26.8% UP probability, 61.9% DOWN probability, 100% confidence
TradingView chart showing PolyPredictor with a BUY UP signal, 62.8% UP probability, 37.2% DOWN probability, 66.7% confidence
Live chart: 62.8% UP probability, 37.2% DOWN probability, 66.7% confidence

Built for 5-Minute Markets

Every component is tuned for Polymarket's 5-minute Up/Down resolution windows across supported markets.

6 Weighted Indicators

Momentum (RSI + MACD), Trend (EMA Slope), Order Flow (CVD + VWAP), Volatility (BB%B), Microstructure (Candle Analysis), and Mean Reversion (Z-Score). Each scored -1 to +1, weighted, and combined.

Regime-Adaptive

Auto-detects market regime via Bollinger Bandwidth. Boosts mean-reversion weights during squeezes, momentum weights during expansions. Research shows this is critical at 5-minute horizons.

Real-Time Probability

Displays UP/DOWN probability as a percentage, updated every tick. Includes confidence scoring based on indicator agreement and signal strength. Visual probability meter at bottom.

Built-In Accuracy Tracking

Live tracks prediction accuracy right on the dashboard: total, UP calls, DOWN calls, and strong-signal-only accuracy. See checkmarks and crosses on each past bar.

Polymarket >= Rule

Accounts for Polymarket's specific resolution rule: if the closing price equals the opening price, it resolves as "Up". This structural bullish bias is built into the scoring with a configurable offset.

Research-Backed Defaults

All indicator parameters are pre-tuned based on quantitative research: RSI(7), Fast MACD(5,13,5), EMA(9/21), Stoch(5,3,3). Not guesswork — evidence-based settings for 5-min crypto.

How It Works

A transparent scoring pipeline from raw market data to actionable signal.

Market Data

OHLCV data from your TradingView chart. Use the 5-minute symbol that matches the active Polymarket market (for example BTC, ETH, or SOL) for the closest feed alignment.

Regime Detection

Bollinger Bandwidth analysis determines if the market is in a Squeeze (range-bound, favor mean-reversion) or Expansion (trending, favor momentum). Weights adjust automatically.

6-Factor Scoring

Each indicator produces a score from -1 (strong bearish) to +1 (strong bullish). Momentum, Trend, Order Flow, Volatility, Microstructure, and Mean Reversion are weighted by regime.

Probability + Bias

Composite score converts to UP/DOWN probability (20-80% range). A small bullish bias (+0.5%) accounts for Polymarket's >= resolution rule. Confidence level computed from indicator agreement.

Signal + Alert

If probability exceeds your threshold: BUY UP or BUY DOWN signal appears. Strong signals (65%+) are highlighted differently. Optional TradingView alerts for each signal type.

Fully Configurable

Every parameter is exposed in TradingView's settings panel. Tune to your edge.

Indicator Weights

  • Momentum 25%
  • Trend 20%
  • Order Flow 15%
  • Volatility 10%
  • Microstructure 10%
  • Mean Reversion 20%

Indicator Tuning

  • RSI Length 7
  • MACD 5 / 13 / 5
  • Fast / Slow EMA 9 / 21
  • Stochastic K/D 5 / 3 / 3
  • BB Length / StdDev 20 / 2.0
  • Z-Score Activation 1.0

Regime Switch

  • Auto Regime On
  • Squeeze Threshold 0.8x avg
  • MR Boost (Squeeze) 1.5x
  • Mom Boost (Expand) 1.5x

Signal & Bias

  • Signal Threshold 55%
  • Strong Signal 65%
  • Bullish Bias (>=) +0.5%
  • Dashboard, Meter, Signals Toggleable

Signal Types

Clear, unambiguous signals tell you exactly what to buy on Polymarket.

STRONG UP

Probability: 65%+

High-confidence signal. Most indicators agree on bullish direction with strong individual scores. These setups typically deliver the best win rates.

Action: Buy "Up" on Polymarket

UP

Probability: 55-65%

Moderate bullish lean. Some indicators agree, but not as strongly. Use with caution or smaller position sizes.

Action: Consider "Up" with smaller size

NEUTRAL

Probability: 45-55%

Mixed signals. Indicators disagree or are too weak. No edge detected for this 5-minute window.

Action: Skip this round

STRONG DOWN

Probability: 65%+

High-confidence bearish signal. Strong indicator consensus pointing down. Best win rate among all signal types.

Action: Buy "Down" on Polymarket

Quick Setup

Open TradingView

Set your chart to the matching underlying symbol on 5-minute timeframe. Example: use BTC, ETH, or SOL symbols that match the market you trade.

Add the Indicator

Open Pine Editor, paste the script, click "Add to Chart". The dashboard and signals appear immediately.

Watch & Trade

Open your selected Polymarket 5-minute market alongside. When the indicator shows a strong signal, place your trade before the window closes.

Get Access

One-time purchase. No subscription.

PolyPredictor

Full indicator with all features

$ 99
  • 6 weighted indicators with regime switch
  • Real-time probability + confidence
  • Built-in accuracy tracker
  • Polymarket >= bias correction
  • All parameters configurable
  • Free trial via Telegram bot
Purchase Now Get Free Trial View on TradingView

Both options currently run through Telegram while payment and trial automation are being finalized. The TradingView button opens the public script preview.

Frequently Asked Questions

What exchange, symbol, and timeframe should I use?

Use a 5-minute TradingView chart and match the symbol to your Polymarket market. For BTC markets use a BTC/USD feed, for ETH markets use ETH/USD, and so on. The closer your chart feed is to the market's underlying reference, the better the alignment.

How does the >= rule affect predictions?

Polymarket resolves "Up" if the closing price is greater than or equal to the opening price. This means flat candles count as "Up" wins, creating a small structural bullish bias (~50.5-51.5% of 5-min candles are historically green). The indicator accounts for this with a configurable bias offset (default +0.5%).

What is the regime switch?

Academic research shows that at 5-minute horizons, mean-reversion dominates during low-volatility periods (squeezes) while momentum works better during high-volatility expansions. The indicator detects the current regime via Bollinger Bandwidth and automatically adjusts indicator weights accordingly.

How is the 86.3% accuracy calculated?

The indicator tracks every signal it generates against the actual outcome of each 5-minute candle (close >= open = Up). The dashboard updates this live across all visible bars. In the current screenshot sample: total accuracy is 86.3% and UP signals are 86.1%.

Is this only for one market?

No. PolyPredictor is built for Polymarket 5-minute Up/Down markets in general. You can use it across supported crypto markets by switching to the matching TradingView symbol for each market.

Do I need a paid TradingView plan?

The indicator works on any TradingView plan, including the free tier. However, a paid plan gives you real-time data (no 15-minute delay) and the ability to set alerts, both of which are important for 5-minute trading.

Is this financial advice?

No. This is a technical analysis tool that provides probability estimates. It does not constitute financial, investment, or trading advice. Prediction markets carry risk and you can lose money. Past backtested performance does not guarantee future results. Always do your own research.

Get In Touch

Questions about PolyPredictor? Reach out directly on Telegram.

Message on Telegram

Fastest response via Telegram. We typically reply within a few hours.